CMA Annual General Meeting 2023
President predicts moderate growth with potential rebound in exports in 2024
The Chinese Manufacturers’ Association of Hong Kong (CMA) held its annual general meeting for the year 2023 today (28 September), with President Dr Allen Shi providing a report on the association’s works over the past year and an analysis of the current and future prospects for Hong Kong’s economy.
Challenges in the external environment and uncertainties in domestic demand
President Dr Shi described Hong Kong’s economy this year as navigating a “cool external and warm internal” pattern. He stated, “While visitor numbers have recovered to 40% of pre-pandemic levels in the first half of the year, resulting in over 10% growth in private consumption expenditure driven by market rebound, global economic growth remains sluggish. Structural factors affecting Hong Kong’s re-export trade have led to a shortfall in exports of goods and merchandise.”
Considering the International Monetary Fund’s forecast of a slowdown in overall growth rate for developed economies in these two years compared to 2022, as well as the challenges posed by the external environment, CMA believes that significant improvement in Hong Kong’s merchandise exports this year is unlikely. However, due to the low base effect, there will be a narrower year-on-year decline in the following months, and there is a possibility of positive growth by year-end. As inflation easing in Europe and the United States and the end of the interest rate hike cycle approaching, it is expected that consumer confidence and purchasing power in overseas markets will gradually recover. Importers are also anticipated to replenish their stocks following inventory digestion, leading to gradual stabilisation in Hong Kong’s exports from next year. With the impact of low base effect, CMA predicts a relatively low single-digit growth rate of less than 5% for whole year of 2024.
In terms of domestic demand, continuous improvements in the job market and the accelerated recovery of the tourism industry, combined with initiatives such as “Happy Hong Kong” and “Night Vibes Hong Kong” campaigns introduced by the SAR government, are expected to drive further growth in the retail and tourism-related sectors. However, changes in local people’s and Mainland tourists’ consumption patterns may result in a “net outflow of consumption”. Additionally, the interest rate hikes have led to high levels of capital costs, weakening the stock and property markets and potentially suppressing consumer spending and investment desire among the public.
President Dr Shi predicts that given the less optimistic outlook for export trade, domestic demand will continue to play a vital role in economic stabilisation. However, the growth momentum of domestic demand remains constrained by multiple uncertainties. Consequently, Hong Kong’s economic growth rate in the second half of this year is expected to accelerate, but the actual GDP growth rate for the entire year of 2023 may only reach 4%, which is the lower end of the government’s forecast range.
Looking ahead to next year, Hong Kong’s GDP growth rate may experience a slight decline as the impact of the one-off stimulus from “cross-border e-commerce” diminishes. However, with the potential rebound in exports of goods, continued government investment in the innovation and technology industry, and the effectiveness of measures to attracting enterprises and talents, alongside a series of policies promoting stable growth in the Mainland, Hong Kong is expected to achieve a moderate growth rate of around 3.5% in 2024.
CMA’s efforts in promoting trade and industrial development
President Dr Shi also highlighted the CMA’s achievements over the past year and outlined future plans. In terms of industrial and technological development, CMA Testing’s technology commercialisation platform CMA+ has successfully commercialised numerous local research projects. Furthermore, next month, the establishment of a pilot manufacturing centre will enhance R&D transformation, supporting Hong Kong’s vision of becoming an international innovation and technology centre and promoting new industrialisation development.
CMA has also actively pursued business cooperation opportunities by organising delegations to Mainland China and ASEAN countries. These efforts aim to promote the “Hong Kong Story” both domestically and internationally, solidifying Hong Kong’s advantage as a “super connector”. Additionally, CMA has collaborated with the Hong Kong Brand Development Council to organise the “Hong Kong. IN. Brand Greater Bay” activities, assisting enterprises in exploring opportunities in the Mainland, especially in the Greater Bay Area (GBA). Furthermore, CMA has actively participated in the development of GBA standards for various products and commercial services.
Regarding the local economy, CMA will strongly support and cooperate with the SAR government in boosting the daytime and nighttime economies. The association plans to enhance the content of the upcoming the “10th Hong Kong Food Carnival” and the “57th Hong Kong Brands and Products Expo” in December. It will also extend the opening hours to stimulate local consumption.
CMA office-bearers attending the AGM also included Executive Vice President Dr Wingco Lo, Vice Presidents Mr Simon Wong, Dr Edward Chan, Mr Dennis Ng Kwok On, Mr Jackson Leung, Mr Calvin Chan and Honorary Presidents Dr Edward Tsui, Dr Chiu Chun Bong and Mr Lui Chun Fan.
Encls:
CMA’s Hong Kong Economic Outlook for 2024
President Dr Allen Shi delivered a speech at 2023 Annual General Meeting
The CMA office-bearers posed for a photo at 2023 Annual General Meeting.
(front row, from left to right) Vice Presidents Mr Calvin Chan, Dr Edward Chan, Executive Vice President Dr Wingco Lo, President Dr Allen Shi, Vice Presidents Mr Simon Wong, Mr Dennis Ng Kwok On and Mr Jackson Leung
(back row) Honorary Presidents Mr Lui Chun Fan (first left), Dr Chiu Chun Bong (second left) and Dr Edward Tsui (third left)
Challenges in the external environment and uncertainties in domestic demand
President Dr Shi described Hong Kong’s economy this year as navigating a “cool external and warm internal” pattern. He stated, “While visitor numbers have recovered to 40% of pre-pandemic levels in the first half of the year, resulting in over 10% growth in private consumption expenditure driven by market rebound, global economic growth remains sluggish. Structural factors affecting Hong Kong’s re-export trade have led to a shortfall in exports of goods and merchandise.”
Considering the International Monetary Fund’s forecast of a slowdown in overall growth rate for developed economies in these two years compared to 2022, as well as the challenges posed by the external environment, CMA believes that significant improvement in Hong Kong’s merchandise exports this year is unlikely. However, due to the low base effect, there will be a narrower year-on-year decline in the following months, and there is a possibility of positive growth by year-end. As inflation easing in Europe and the United States and the end of the interest rate hike cycle approaching, it is expected that consumer confidence and purchasing power in overseas markets will gradually recover. Importers are also anticipated to replenish their stocks following inventory digestion, leading to gradual stabilisation in Hong Kong’s exports from next year. With the impact of low base effect, CMA predicts a relatively low single-digit growth rate of less than 5% for whole year of 2024.
In terms of domestic demand, continuous improvements in the job market and the accelerated recovery of the tourism industry, combined with initiatives such as “Happy Hong Kong” and “Night Vibes Hong Kong” campaigns introduced by the SAR government, are expected to drive further growth in the retail and tourism-related sectors. However, changes in local people’s and Mainland tourists’ consumption patterns may result in a “net outflow of consumption”. Additionally, the interest rate hikes have led to high levels of capital costs, weakening the stock and property markets and potentially suppressing consumer spending and investment desire among the public.
President Dr Shi predicts that given the less optimistic outlook for export trade, domestic demand will continue to play a vital role in economic stabilisation. However, the growth momentum of domestic demand remains constrained by multiple uncertainties. Consequently, Hong Kong’s economic growth rate in the second half of this year is expected to accelerate, but the actual GDP growth rate for the entire year of 2023 may only reach 4%, which is the lower end of the government’s forecast range.
Looking ahead to next year, Hong Kong’s GDP growth rate may experience a slight decline as the impact of the one-off stimulus from “cross-border e-commerce” diminishes. However, with the potential rebound in exports of goods, continued government investment in the innovation and technology industry, and the effectiveness of measures to attracting enterprises and talents, alongside a series of policies promoting stable growth in the Mainland, Hong Kong is expected to achieve a moderate growth rate of around 3.5% in 2024.
CMA’s efforts in promoting trade and industrial development
President Dr Shi also highlighted the CMA’s achievements over the past year and outlined future plans. In terms of industrial and technological development, CMA Testing’s technology commercialisation platform CMA+ has successfully commercialised numerous local research projects. Furthermore, next month, the establishment of a pilot manufacturing centre will enhance R&D transformation, supporting Hong Kong’s vision of becoming an international innovation and technology centre and promoting new industrialisation development.
CMA has also actively pursued business cooperation opportunities by organising delegations to Mainland China and ASEAN countries. These efforts aim to promote the “Hong Kong Story” both domestically and internationally, solidifying Hong Kong’s advantage as a “super connector”. Additionally, CMA has collaborated with the Hong Kong Brand Development Council to organise the “Hong Kong. IN. Brand Greater Bay” activities, assisting enterprises in exploring opportunities in the Mainland, especially in the Greater Bay Area (GBA). Furthermore, CMA has actively participated in the development of GBA standards for various products and commercial services.
Regarding the local economy, CMA will strongly support and cooperate with the SAR government in boosting the daytime and nighttime economies. The association plans to enhance the content of the upcoming the “10th Hong Kong Food Carnival” and the “57th Hong Kong Brands and Products Expo” in December. It will also extend the opening hours to stimulate local consumption.
CMA office-bearers attending the AGM also included Executive Vice President Dr Wingco Lo, Vice Presidents Mr Simon Wong, Dr Edward Chan, Mr Dennis Ng Kwok On, Mr Jackson Leung, Mr Calvin Chan and Honorary Presidents Dr Edward Tsui, Dr Chiu Chun Bong and Mr Lui Chun Fan.
Encls:
CMA’s Hong Kong Economic Outlook for 2024
President Dr Allen Shi delivered a speech at 2023 Annual General Meeting
The CMA office-bearers posed for a photo at 2023 Annual General Meeting.
(front row, from left to right) Vice Presidents Mr Calvin Chan, Dr Edward Chan, Executive Vice President Dr Wingco Lo, President Dr Allen Shi, Vice Presidents Mr Simon Wong, Mr Dennis Ng Kwok On and Mr Jackson Leung
(back row) Honorary Presidents Mr Lui Chun Fan (first left), Dr Chiu Chun Bong (second left) and Dr Edward Tsui (third left)