The CMA Annual General Meeting 2024:
Moderate Economic Growth for Hong Kong Predicted in 2025
The Chinese Manufacturers’ Association of Hong Kong (the CMA) held its annual general meeting (AGM) today (26 September), during which President Dr Wingco Lo reported on the association’s achievements over the past year, outlined its future strategic direction, and unveiled its 2025 economic forecast.
Favourable short-term factors boost export performance
Hong Kong’s economy has shown year-on-year growth for six consecutive quarters, which is a positive sign. However, private consumption and tourism services have encountered significant challenges in the first half of the year, with private consumption even experiencing negative growth in the second quarter. The business community must remain vigilant regarding the weakening recovery momentum.
In contrast, Hong Kong’s goods exports, a significant driver of economic growth, have excelled in the first half of the year, particularly with impressive growth in exports to the Mainland, the United States, and ASEAN countries. President Lo attributed this better-than-expected growth to the resilience of both Mainland and international market demands. This trend may also be linked to the market sentiment surrounding the upcoming presidential election in the United States, where local importers might have placed orders early to mitigate future tariff risks. He anticipated that Hong Kong’s goods exports will maintain high single-digit growth in the coming months.
Mounting external uncertainties and stabilising domestic demand
It is important to note that as we enter the second half of the year, the Manufacturing PMI of major economies has generally weakened. The International Monetary Fund forecasts that the growth of developed economies will be modest, projected at 1.7% and 1.8% over the next two years. Adding to this, the recent surge in trade protectionism in Western countries poses a significant challenge. There is a looming risk of an escalation in the US-China Trade War if Donald Trump be re-elected. These uncertainties cast a shadow over the city’s export outlook next year. Assuming US tariffs on Chinese imports remain largely unchanged, the CMA anticipates a slowdown in Hong Kong’s goods export growth to low single-digit levels next year.
Domestically, various factors have constrained the performance of the local consumption market and investment spending. These include a sluggish asset market, shifts in consumption behaviour, and high financing costs. Despite these challenges, Hong Kong’s employment market remains stable. Moreover, the US Federal Reserve has officially initiated a rate-cutting cycle, which will help alleviate pressures related to mortgages and financing. Concurrently, the Mainland authorities have recently introduced a major package of measures to stimulate the economy and stock market, injecting new momentum into the recovery of Hong Kong’s financial market. Additionally, the Hong Kong government is actively promoting a series of large-scale events, and the Hong Kong dollar is likely to weaken alongside the US dollar. These factors are expected to attract tourists to Hong Kong, thereby stabilising the domestic market demand.
Given this backdrop, President Lo predicts, “There will be a slowdown in Hong Kong’s economy growth in the second half of this year. Our forecast for full-year GDP growth in 2024 is in the range of 2.5% to 3%. The growth rate for 2025 is expected to remain consistent with this year, maintaining moderate growth at 2.5% to 3%.”
Developing new quality productive forces to promote economic diversification
Despite the internal and external challenges facing Hong Kong’s economy, the country’s continued progress toward high-level opening-up and high-quality development presents Hong Kong with unprecedented opportunities. President Lo emphasised the CMA’s strategic initiatives and ongoing introduction of new services to cultivate new and high-quality productivity.
In response to the expectations set forth by the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the CMA is actively enhancing its functions as a “super connector” and a “super value-adder”. In particular, CMA Testing has formed alliances with industries across several provinces and cities in the Mainland, leveraging its strengths in testing and certification, green development, brand management, and international connections. These efforts aim to help high-quality Mainland industries enhance their value and create even greater new quality productive forces that can propel us forward globally.
Additionally, the CMA is collaborating with various Mainland and local organisations to host an international-level exhibition on new energy vehicles and supply chains next June at the AsiaWorld-Expo, showcasing Hong Kong’s unique advantages as an international trade hub.
“Green development is a defining feature of high‑quality development”. In recent years, the CMA has launched ESG Pledge, Hong Kong ESG Awards, and various green solutions and training services to encourage the industry to take more concrete actions in social investment and environmental protection. By the end of this year, the CMA will launch a carbon credit platform for the industry and the public to offset their carbon emissions. These initiatives are envisioned to foster green productivity and enhance competitiveness.
In efforts to stimulate local consumption, the CMA will continue to incorporate novel elements into its exhibitions. In addition to the introduction of wine-tasting experiences, limited-edition panda milk tea will also be offered for free during the upcoming Hong Kong Food Carnival and Hong Kong Brands and Products Expo to welcome the arrival of a pair of giant pandas gifted by the Central Government. Leveraging the popularity of giant pandas, these initiatives aim to promote Hong Kong’s vibrant local food culture to Mainland and international visitors, creating more business opportunities.
Other office-bearers of the CMA attending the AGM included Dr Allen Shi, Permanent Honorary President; Mr Jimmy Ng, Legislative Council Representative; Dr Warren Ma, Executive Vice President; Mr Dennis Ng Kwok On, Mr Calvin Chan, Mr Robert Lok, and Mr Ivan Sze; Vice Presidents; and Dr Michael Chan, Honorary President.
Favourable short-term factors boost export performance
Hong Kong’s economy has shown year-on-year growth for six consecutive quarters, which is a positive sign. However, private consumption and tourism services have encountered significant challenges in the first half of the year, with private consumption even experiencing negative growth in the second quarter. The business community must remain vigilant regarding the weakening recovery momentum.
In contrast, Hong Kong’s goods exports, a significant driver of economic growth, have excelled in the first half of the year, particularly with impressive growth in exports to the Mainland, the United States, and ASEAN countries. President Lo attributed this better-than-expected growth to the resilience of both Mainland and international market demands. This trend may also be linked to the market sentiment surrounding the upcoming presidential election in the United States, where local importers might have placed orders early to mitigate future tariff risks. He anticipated that Hong Kong’s goods exports will maintain high single-digit growth in the coming months.
Mounting external uncertainties and stabilising domestic demand
It is important to note that as we enter the second half of the year, the Manufacturing PMI of major economies has generally weakened. The International Monetary Fund forecasts that the growth of developed economies will be modest, projected at 1.7% and 1.8% over the next two years. Adding to this, the recent surge in trade protectionism in Western countries poses a significant challenge. There is a looming risk of an escalation in the US-China Trade War if Donald Trump be re-elected. These uncertainties cast a shadow over the city’s export outlook next year. Assuming US tariffs on Chinese imports remain largely unchanged, the CMA anticipates a slowdown in Hong Kong’s goods export growth to low single-digit levels next year.
Domestically, various factors have constrained the performance of the local consumption market and investment spending. These include a sluggish asset market, shifts in consumption behaviour, and high financing costs. Despite these challenges, Hong Kong’s employment market remains stable. Moreover, the US Federal Reserve has officially initiated a rate-cutting cycle, which will help alleviate pressures related to mortgages and financing. Concurrently, the Mainland authorities have recently introduced a major package of measures to stimulate the economy and stock market, injecting new momentum into the recovery of Hong Kong’s financial market. Additionally, the Hong Kong government is actively promoting a series of large-scale events, and the Hong Kong dollar is likely to weaken alongside the US dollar. These factors are expected to attract tourists to Hong Kong, thereby stabilising the domestic market demand.
Given this backdrop, President Lo predicts, “There will be a slowdown in Hong Kong’s economy growth in the second half of this year. Our forecast for full-year GDP growth in 2024 is in the range of 2.5% to 3%. The growth rate for 2025 is expected to remain consistent with this year, maintaining moderate growth at 2.5% to 3%.”
Developing new quality productive forces to promote economic diversification
Despite the internal and external challenges facing Hong Kong’s economy, the country’s continued progress toward high-level opening-up and high-quality development presents Hong Kong with unprecedented opportunities. President Lo emphasised the CMA’s strategic initiatives and ongoing introduction of new services to cultivate new and high-quality productivity.
In response to the expectations set forth by the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the CMA is actively enhancing its functions as a “super connector” and a “super value-adder”. In particular, CMA Testing has formed alliances with industries across several provinces and cities in the Mainland, leveraging its strengths in testing and certification, green development, brand management, and international connections. These efforts aim to help high-quality Mainland industries enhance their value and create even greater new quality productive forces that can propel us forward globally.
Additionally, the CMA is collaborating with various Mainland and local organisations to host an international-level exhibition on new energy vehicles and supply chains next June at the AsiaWorld-Expo, showcasing Hong Kong’s unique advantages as an international trade hub.
“Green development is a defining feature of high‑quality development”. In recent years, the CMA has launched ESG Pledge, Hong Kong ESG Awards, and various green solutions and training services to encourage the industry to take more concrete actions in social investment and environmental protection. By the end of this year, the CMA will launch a carbon credit platform for the industry and the public to offset their carbon emissions. These initiatives are envisioned to foster green productivity and enhance competitiveness.
In efforts to stimulate local consumption, the CMA will continue to incorporate novel elements into its exhibitions. In addition to the introduction of wine-tasting experiences, limited-edition panda milk tea will also be offered for free during the upcoming Hong Kong Food Carnival and Hong Kong Brands and Products Expo to welcome the arrival of a pair of giant pandas gifted by the Central Government. Leveraging the popularity of giant pandas, these initiatives aim to promote Hong Kong’s vibrant local food culture to Mainland and international visitors, creating more business opportunities.
Other office-bearers of the CMA attending the AGM included Dr Allen Shi, Permanent Honorary President; Mr Jimmy Ng, Legislative Council Representative; Dr Warren Ma, Executive Vice President; Mr Dennis Ng Kwok On, Mr Calvin Chan, Mr Robert Lok, and Mr Ivan Sze; Vice Presidents; and Dr Michael Chan, Honorary President.
Encls:
CMA’s Hong Kong Economic Outlook for 2025 (Chinese Only)
Dr Wingco Lo, President of the CMA, delivered a speech at 2024 Annual General Meeting
Office-bearers of the CMA posed for a photo at 2024 Annual General Meeting.
(Front row, from left to right) Mr Robert Lok and Mr Dennis Ng Kwok On, Vice Presidents; Dr Warren Ma, Executive Vice President; Dr Wingco Lo, President; Mr Jimmy Ng, Legislative Council Representative; Dr Allen Shi, Permanent Honorary President; Mr Calvin Chan and Mr Ivan Sze; Vice Presidents
(Back row, 2nd from the left) Dr Michael Chan, Honorary President